According to the latest market study "Freight Wagons - Global Market Trends 2024" by SCI Verkehr, there will be significant regional differences. While the global market trend remains positive, the European OEM market is expected to decline over the next few years. After reaching a record market volume of €1.9 billion in 2023, the European OEM freight wagon market is now struggling with the effects of a weakened economy. Imbalances between supply and demand need to be addressed if the market is to maintain its growth trajectory in the medium and long term.
Cross-regional impact of rising purchase prices
North America, the CIS and Asia are currently the largest markets for the freight car OEM business, with Europe in fourth place. North America is the only region that has not experienced growth over the last five years (2018-2023), while Asia, the CIS and Europe have all shown positive development. India and Russia stand out, with the Russian market developing positively despite war-related challenges, mainly due to price effects. Europe recorded the highest growth rate due to a very high level of deliveries and rising purchase prices. However, the situation is expected to change over the forecast period to 2028. Asia and the CIS are expected to continue their positive development, albeit at a slower pace, and North America is expected to return to growth. Conversely, Europe is expected to face a downturn in the OEM market.
European intermodal wagon market in decline as transport volumes fall
The European OEM freight wagon market is currently feeling the effects of a weakened economy, leading to reduced demand for transport services and consequently for rolling stock. Deliveries of freight wagons remain at a relatively high level for the time being due to previous orders, but this is only exacerbating the situation. This is partly due to the entry into the market of financially sound, growth-oriented investors. In addition, none of the players, especially in the leasing business, wants to lose ground to their competitors.
Although production capacity is well utilised for both 2024 and 2025 thanks to existing contracts, the freight wagon industry in Europe is feeling the effects of the challenges within the rail freight market. The intermodal wagon sector is particularly affected. The previously high demand for container and pocket wagons, which contributed significantly to the significant market volume in the last two years, has now collapsed due to the reduced demand for transport. This decline is expected to take full effect in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. Although demand for other wagon types, such as car-carrying wagons, is developing positively, this cannot fully offset the decline in intermodal business. As a result, Europe is expected to be the only region in the world where the OEM market is forecast to decline in the coming years. Addressing the structural challenges facing Europe's railways is crucial to rebalancing supply and demand and sustaining growth in the medium and long term.
The new SCI Verkehr study provides an analysis of the freight wagon market and the challenges it currently faces in seven world regions and selected focus countries, including eight in Europe.
